Upper San Gabriel Valley Municipal Water District
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FORECASTERS PREDICT DWINDLING CHANCES OF EL NINO

Saturday, September 06, 2014

Forecasters are growing more pessimistic that a rain-rich El Nino system will hit California this winter.

A few months ago, the predictions for an El Nino were at 80 percent. Now, they’re at 60 percent. The revision comes as the National Weather Service monitors surface temperatures on the Pacific Ocean, which are not as warm as projected.

“If the sea surface temperatures aren’t as warm that means if an El Nino does develop, it’s more likely going to be a weak El Nino. With a weak El Nino, you don’t get as strong of a correlation of higher precipitation for the winter,” National Weather Service forecaster Brooke Bingaman said.

Short-term storms like the one last month in the high desert communities may offer some relief. This weekend, the U.S. Forest Service is alerting some areas that Hurricane Norbert could wallop areas of San Bernardino County, which recently endured mudslides.